World Cup 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is already underway — and with 48 teams, 104 matches and three host countries, there has never been more football to predict. But cut through the noise and the same question keeps coming up: who is actually going to win this thing?

Here is a cold-eyed look at the genuine contenders, the teams being underrated, and who we think will be lifting the trophy at MetLife Stadium on 19 July.

The Defending Champions: Argentina

No team enters a World Cup with more belief than the reigning champions. Argentina won in Qatar under Lionel Scaloni with a squad built around discipline, collective work rate and — of course — Lionel Messi. The question now is whether Messi, at 38, still has enough to carry a team through seven matches.

The signs in qualifying were mixed. Argentina remain well-organised and difficult to break down, but their reliance on Messi for creative moments is even more pronounced as his physical output naturally reduces. Lautaro Martínez provides the cutting edge up front; Julián Álvarez brings relentless energy. Defensively they are solid.

The history is against them. No team has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. Of the nine defending champions to reach the following World Cup, only Brazil retained the title. Every other champion has either exited in the group stage or been knocked out in the round of 16 or quarter-finals.

That does not mean it cannot happen — but it is a weight Argentina carry whether they acknowledge it or not.

Verdict: Quarter-finals or semi-finals. Not the favourites, but never write them off while Messi is available.

France: The Overwhelming Favourites

France enter this tournament as many people's pick, and it is hard to argue. Their squad has extraordinary depth at every position — multiple world-class options in midfield, two of the game's best full-backs, and a front line built around Kylian Mbappé.

Mbappé is 27 and at the peak of his powers. In 2022 he scored eight goals, finished as top scorer and almost single-handedly dragged France to the final from a poor team performance. With a better supporting cast in 2026, the ceiling is higher.

The concern with France — as always — is cohesion. Their squad is full of big personalities and the team has underperformed at major tournaments relative to the talent available. The 2021 Euros exit against Switzerland still haunts them. But Didier Deschamps knows how to win tournaments, not just play pretty football.

Verdict: Joint favourites. If the squad functions as a unit, they win it. If egos resurface, they fall short again.

Brazil: South America's Other Heavyweight

Brazil arrived at this tournament desperate to end their 24-year title drought — their last World Cup came in 2002. They qualified comfortably and have one of the most technically gifted squads in the tournament.

Vinicius Júnior is the focal point — rapid, direct and capable of moments of brilliance that no defender can prepare for. Around him, Rodrygo and a deep midfield offer balance. Defensively Brazil can be vulnerable to pace on the counter, which will be tested in knockout football.

The X-factor is that Brazil have two genuine world-class threats on the flanks. In a tournament where tight knockout matches come down to a single moment of quality, that matters.

Vinicius Júnior — Brazil's attacking threat at World Cup 2026

Verdict: Semi-finals or better. Likely to reach the last four and capable of going all the way.

Spain: The System Team

Spain under current manager Luis de la Fuente continue the tradition of technically excellent, possession-based football — but with more directness and intensity than the tiki-taka era of 2010. They won Euro 2024 convincingly, playing some of the best football in European football.

Pedri, Gavi and Yamal form a midfield and attacking unit that is arguably the most technically complete in the tournament. Yamal, still only 18, is a generational talent. Spain's strength is their system — they do not rely on one superstar to the same extent as France or Brazil.

The vulnerability: Spain have historically struggled to convert World Cup momentum. Their 2022 exit on penalties to Morocco was a sobering reminder that beautiful football does not always win knockout rounds.

Verdict: Dark horse for the title. Capable of winning every match they play, and more consistent than France. Could go all the way.

England: The Nearly Men, Again?

England's core is excellent. Jude Bellingham has matured into one of the world's best midfielders. Phil Foden is a creative force. The defensive structure under current management is solid. They have now reached four semi-finals or better across the last four major tournaments.

But England carry the weight of their own expectations. They are capable of winning a World Cup — the talent is undeniable. The question is whether they can produce their best football in the knockout rounds when the pressure peaks.

Verdict: Semi-finals is the floor, the final is within reach. Whether they can win it comes down to mentality in key moments.

Germany: Quietly Rebuilding

Germany have been rebuilding since their embarrassing group-stage exit in 2018 and their disappointing Euro 2024 quarter-final exit on home soil. Under Julian Nagelsmann, there are signs of a coherent identity returning — pressing, direct, and hard to contain at set pieces.

Florian Wirtz has emerged as a genuine game-changer in midfield. Jamal Musiala gives them pace and creativity in tight spaces. The question is whether their defence is tight enough to survive deep in a tournament of this quality.

Verdict: Quarter-finals. A difficult opponent for anyone, but not quite at the level of France, Spain or Brazil.

The Dark Horses

Morocco cannot be ignored. They reached the semi-finals in Qatar — the best performance by an African nation in World Cup history — and their squad has only strengthened since. They are tactically disciplined, physical and difficult to break down. A host-nation boost (playing several games on the continent, with passionate diaspora support) adds to their credentials.

Portugal without Cristiano Ronaldo as the focal point have evolved. Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes give them quality in midfield. The question is whether they have the finishing quality in front of goal to go deep.

Netherlands have Virgil van Dijk at the peak of his authority and several high-quality attackers. They are dangerous but historically inconsistent in big moments.

MetLife Stadium — venue for the World Cup 2026 Final

Our Verdict

France's depth, individual quality and tactical flexibility make them the team to beat. Mbappé in a World Cup on a stage this big — with a squad capable of winning without him on off days — is the combination that tips the balance.

But in a 48-team tournament with 104 matches, upsets happen at every stage. That is precisely what makes predicting every result so compelling.

Make Your Own Predictions

The best way to follow a World Cup is to have something riding on every game. ScorePit lets you predict the exact scoreline of every match, earn points for accuracy and compete on a leaderboard with your friends throughout the tournament.

With 104 matches across six weeks, there are hundreds of predictions to make — and a 12-point maximum for every perfect call. Group stage surprises, quarter-final shocks, a final that goes to extra time: every result matters.

Image credits

• Kylian Mbappé with the World Cup Trophy — Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
• Vinicius Júnior 2021 — Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
• MetLife Stadium exterior — Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0